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The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has proposed performance-based incentives for banks and exchange companies to boost remittance inflows through formal banking channels. According to sources, during a recent Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) meeting, the SBP’s deputy governor emphasized the need to shift from the current transaction-based incentives to a performance-driven approach. Previously, banks received 30 Saudi Riyal (SAR) for every $100 transaction. The SBP now proposes reducing this base incentive to 20 SAR per $100 transaction. Additionally, banks would receive an extra 8 SAR per incremental transaction if they achieve a growth of up to 10% or $100 million compared to the previous year, whichever is lower. For growth beyond 10% or $100 million, a further 7 SAR would be provided. Concerns were raised during the meeting about whether a cost-benefit analysis had been performed, as the scheme could have significant financial consequences for the government. The SBP clarified that the existing scheme has successfully increased remittance inflows, bringing in nearly $30 billion annually. The proposed reduction in the base rate from 30 SAR to 20 SAR would also reduce the government’s overall Telegraphic Transfer (TT) charges. The SBP also outlined additional proposed revisions for exchange companies. The Finance Division informed the committee that the government, through the SBP and the Pakistan Remittance Initiative (PRI), has introduced various schemes to promote remittances via formal channels. These schemes were revised in 2023, resulting in steady growth in remittances. In FY 2024, remittances saw a 10.7% year-on-year increase, totalling $30.3 billion, compared to $27.3 billion in FY 2023. SBP has proposed further revisions to two Home Remittance Incentive Schemes, which were originally approved by the ECC/Cabinet and now require ECC approval for the proposed updates. Reimbursement of TT Charges This scheme, introduced in 1985, aims to provide remittance transactions at zero cost for both senders and receivers in Pakistan for transactions exceeding $100. Banks and financial institutions involved receive a uniform incentive for eligible transactions. The incentive rate was raised to 30 SAR last year, leading to positive growth in remittances. Now, SBP proposes splitting the flat 30 SAR reimbursement into fixed and variable components. The fixed component would provide 20 SAR for all eligible transactions over $100. The variable component would offer an additional 8 SAR per incremental transaction for growth up to 10% or $100 million, whichever is lower. For growth exceeding 10% or $100 million, an additional 7 SAR would be provided. Banks achieving higher remittance inflows could earn up to 35 SAR per transaction, with performance reviewed monthly and adjustments made in the last quarter of the financial year. SBP believes these changes will encourage banks to drive remittance inflows while potentially reducing the government’s TT charges. Incentive Scheme for Exchange Companies Introduced in 2022, this scheme incentivizes exchange companies (EC) to surrender 100% of their foreign exchange to the interbank market. Currently, exchange companies receive Rs1 per USD mobilized. The SBP proposes increasing the base rate to Rs2 per USD surrendered to SBP-designated banks. A variable component would also be introduced, offering Rs3 per USD for incremental remittances up to 5% or $25 million, whichever is lower, and Rs4 per USD for growth beyond 5% or $25 million. Payments would be based on surrendering foreign exchange in line with SBP’s prescribed percentages, with performance evaluated monthly and adjustments made in the last quarter of the financial year. SBP argues that these revisions will incentivize exchange companies to mobilize more remittances and help offset their increased operating costs. ECC Approval The ECC reviewed the Finance Division’s summary on the “Proposal for Revision in Home Remittances Incentive Schemes” and approved SBP’s proposed changes to both the TT Charges Scheme and the Incentive Scheme for Exchange Companies.

In August 2024, the country recorded a significant increase in remittances, reaching $2.94 billion, the year-on-year growth stood at 40.5 percent. This surge is largely attributed to overseas Pakistani workers sending money back home, particularly from major markets like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK, and the USA. With remittances being a crucial pillar for Pakistan’s economy, this influx has played a critical role in supporting the country’s foreign exchange reserves. The rise in remittances was also much needed, particularly amid normalizing repatriation outflows. The cumulative inflows for the first two months of the fiscal year (2MFY25) witnessed a growth of 44 percent year-on-year with significant growth seen flows from the UAE, KSA and the GCC world. This heightened monthly trend has continued over the last three consecutive months as employment opportunities in Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have improved, with an increasing number of Pakistanis finding work in these regions. Moreover, the government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) have also introduced policies to encourage the use of formal channels for sending remittances. Incentives for banks and exchange companies to attract more inflows, especially from blue collar workers, have been part of this push. To ensure that the remittance inflows remain robust, it is essential for Pakistan to continue strengthening formal remittance channels and maintaining a competitive exchange rate. In the longer term, maintaining stable economic policies and enhancing incentives for formal remittance channels will be key to securing a sustainable inflow of remittances.

During the launch of BYD’s new venture in Pakistan, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced a strategic plan aimed at achieving economic stability through private sector investments, export-oriented growth, and foreign direct investment (FDI). BYD, a leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has partnered with Mega Motor Company—a division of Hubco, Pakistan’s first Independent Power Producer—to establish a factory in Karachi. The decision to set up a plant in Pakistan is notable. It reflects either the success of Pakistani stakeholders in attracting foreign investment or BYD’s assessment that local factors such as a dynamic market, lower labor costs, or tax benefits could reduce manufacturing expenses and enhance the competitiveness of its EVs both domestically and internationally. BYD’s decision may also be influenced by Pakistan’s GSP Plus status with the European Union (EU), which was granted in 2014 following the catastrophic floods of August 2013. The EU’s GSP Plus scheme, which was evaluated in a November 2023 report, provides Pakistan with zero-rated or preferential tariffs on nearly 66% of tariff lines, thus boosting its export potential to the EU. The report acknowledged progress in Pakistan’s legislative framework but highlighted the need for better practical implementation. It remains unclear if BYD’s Pakistani-made EVs will qualify for these preferential tariffs. Earlier this year, the European Commission imposed steep tariffs on EVs, though companies that cooperated with EU anti-subsidy measures faced a lower tariff increase of 17.4%, in addition to the existing 10%. BYD, facing the lowest hike of 17.4%, has yet to disclose any potential price adjustments for its EVs in the EU. BYD is not new to international expansion; it opened a factory in Thailand in July 2024, its first outside China, with a $450 million investment aimed at exporting to ASEAN countries. The Thai plant is part of a broader $1.44 billion investment in the region, supported by subsidies and tax incentives. BYD has also planned manufacturing ventures in Hungary, Turkey, and Brazil. At the launch event in Lahore, BYD General Manager for Asia Pacific, Xueliang, emphasized that the company’s entry into Pakistan is not just about offering advanced vehicles but also about promoting environmental responsibility and technological innovation. BYD plans to open three flagship stores and experience centers in Pakistan and to introduce two SUV models and a sedan between October and December 2024. Hubco’s CEO highlighted the significance of BYD’s investment, noting that the plant will commence operations in 2026. This will mark the establishment of Pakistan’s first dedicated EV manufacturing plant. Details on the level of foreign direct investment, local and foreign equity, or applicable taxes have not yet been disclosed. Currently, Pakistan has only eight electric vehicle charging stations—three in Islamabad, two in Lahore, and one each in Karachi, Hafizabad, and Sargodha. Hubco has pledged to set up fast charging stations in major cities and along major highways. However, the power sector in Pakistan faces significant challenges, including high tariffs and a circular energy debt of 2.4 trillion rupees, which impacts the cost and reliability of electricity. The energy sector issues are compounded by firm contracts with 2015 Independent Power Producers (IPPs), mainly Chinese firms, which involve capacity payments. These contracts contribute to higher electricity costs and hinder efforts to transition to cheaper renewable energy sources. Current energy reforms have focused on shutting off electricity to areas with high arrears, providing untargeted subsidies to low-consumption households, and considering privatization without adequate evaluation of past performance. There is a need for comprehensive reform in the energy sector, including abandoning tariff equalization policies and ensuring fair practices after the sale of distribution companies. In conclusion, it is crucial that the Law Ministry, Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), and Finance Ministry carefully review the agreement with BYD to avoid repeating past mistakes with IPP contracts and to ensure that the public does not bear an undue burden in the future.

Moody’s has upgraded Pakistan’s credit rating from Caa3 to Caa2, reflecting improvements in the country’s macroeconomic conditions and liquidity, although challenges remain. The positive outlook signifies potential for further upgrades if Pakistan continues reform efforts and secures external financing. Key points from the Moody’s update: In summary, while the upgrade and positive outlook are signs of progress, Pakistan’s ability to sustain reforms, manage debt, and secure external financing will be critical for further improvement in its credit rating.

Remittance flow in Pakistan is expected to recover and grow at about 7% to reach $28 billion in (calendar year) 2024 and increase another 4% to about $30 billion in 2025, said the World Bank in its report ‘Migration and Development Brief 40’ released on Wednesday. During 2023, weak economic conditions in Pakistan including a balance of payment crisis and other difficulties resulted in remittance inflows plummet by 12% to $27 billion compared to the same period in preceding year, said the World Bank. As per the report, Pakistan emerged among the top five recipient countries for remittances in 2023. “The top five recipient countries for remittances in 2023 are India with an estimated inflow of $120 billion, followed by Mexico ($66 billion), China ($50 billion), the Philippines ($39 billion), and Pakistan ($27 billion),” read the report. However, despite demand for labour in foreign countries including USA and OECD, which could have favored remittance flows to Pakistan, “weak internal conditions due to a balance of payments crisis and economic difficulties triggered remittances to plummet 12% to $27 billion in 2023 compared with more than $30 billion in 2022”. World Bank projects 2.3pc GDP growth rate The World Bank said a significant share of remittances have likely flowed to Pakistan through informal channels in 2023. “Considering robust labor market conditions in destination countries, it is likely that a significant share of remittances flowed to Pakistan through informal channels in 2023, leading to the drop in formal remittances,” said the report. The World Bank said recent economic crises in Pakistan demonstrated that reform delays were not only a deterrent to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), “but also equally penalized formal remittance flows to these countries until their governments undertook corrective actions”. Pakistan receives record remittances of $3.24bn in May, up over 54% YoY Home remittances play a significant role in supporting the country’s external account, stimulating Pakistan’s economic activity as well as supplementing the disposable incomes of remittance-dependent households. During first 11 months of FY24, workers’ remittances recorded an inflow of $27.093 billion, an increase of 7.7% as compared to $25.146 billion remittances recorded during 11MFY23. The report revealed that with a share of 8% of GDP, Sri Lanka and Pakistan tied for the second position as the country most dependent on remittances in South Asia. Meanwhile, remittances to South Asia grew by 5.2% in 2023, reaching $186 billion, tapering off from a 12% increase in 2022. Growth was driven by India, which saw a 7.5% increase to $120 billion, supported by strong labor markets in the United States and Europe. Reduced outflows from the GCC countries, impacted by declining oil prices and production cuts, contributed to the slowdown. Flows are projected to grow by 4.2% in 2024. “Besides external factors, the domestic economy conditions prevailing in South Asia’s three largest recipients—India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, that collectively receive 91% of the total remittance flows to South Asia—will play a fundamental role in driving remittance growth. “The single most important risk on the downside is from a weak economic recovery from the recent crises in Pakistan and Bangladesh that would motivate migrants to opt for informal over formal money transfer channels, resulting in lower remittance growth,” World Bank said.